Trump Is Blinking on Syria - Russian Ability

to Hit Back Is Too Risky for Him

It is now becoming quite clear that the US and Israel do not hold enough cards in Syria, and have been out-manouvered by Russia/Iran/Syria.


This is the sort of person who means what he says. No BSing. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff 

Consider the following:

The Syrians / Iranians / Russians have won the war on the ground, and a few missile strikes at military targets are not going to change that reality.
We carried an article this morning by the excellent Indian analyst M.K. Bhadrakumar, who is always worth reading, where he explains the reality of this most convincingly.

RI deputy editor Marko Marjanovic makes a similar point in another excellent article this morning - the strikes will not impede the Russian goal of winning the war,
so if there are strikes, the rational response would be to ignore them, and get on with crushing Al Qaeda, which they are doing very effectively (they've already destroyed ISIS).

Also very interesting is this explanation on Russian television recently from an expert on Israeli intelligence and military issues, Yakov Kedmi.
Mr. Kedmi has become a regular on the top Russian political analysis shows, earning respect from viewers for his hype-free explanations of
what the reality is on the ground in the Middle East. A career Israeli intelligence officer, he ran the Israeli government agency 'Nativ',
ostensibly engaged in helping Jews repatriate to Israel, but in fact a part of Israeli intelligence, in the mid-90s.

He explains some very simple facts which no doubt have been explained to Trump by his admirals and generals, when he has time to sit down
and focus for a few minutes in between the madness of having to deal with Mr. Mueller, endless scurrilous and likely untrue allegations trumpeted
in the media, and actually running a country. That he is able to focus on anything for more than a few minutes is astounding.

Kedmi explains that the head of the Russian general staff, Mr. Valery Gerasimov, made it very clear a month ago, that if Russian servicemen were killed
or injured in American strikes, then the Russians will take out the American platforms which launched the strikes. In simple language:
Russian submarines will sink the American ships
that launched the strikes, something they can easily do. Kedmi argues that while the Americans
can't be sure that the Russians will do this, the possibility is high enough that they won't risk it because of the political fallout back home. 
Listen to him explain it himself:

(The translation in the video is not entirely precise. In addition to watching the video, read this partial transcript below where I corrected for clarity)

 

If anyone from the intelligence community said that Israeli planes were sent to test Syrian air defenses, then I feel sorry for those they work for.
The US isn't interested in Syria's air defenses, ... they're interested in the Russian system. ...

Americans are most concerned about the Russian planes in Syria, and about the submarines that are not too far from these US destroyers that will strike.
The Russian Chief of the General Staff (Valery Gerasimov) has warned the Americans concretely. If he said, 'We'll shoot down the missiles,'
that would've been one thing. But, he said, 'We'll sink the destroyers that initiate the strike.' And the Americans take this seriously. ...

Have they ever fought a real army? Who did they fight? The Afghans? The Iraqis? - Those aren't armies. 

They know. They're professionals (the Americans), especially the Navy. They know the difference between fighting a semi-guerilla unit,
 the so-called 'slave armies.', the Afghans - and the Russian Army.

This is why they're so serious about Russia's possible reaction. Like any US President, Trump is a cautious man ...
He says whatever he wants, he's a politician. But he will never go for an operation that might not go well for him.

The US military never starts an operation unless it's 100% or 200% sure of its success. Trump takes this into consideration as he's briefed by the US admirals.

What would happen if the two destroyers that fired the missiles got sunk within 5 minutes? What's next? Would that be a win for him?

The chances of this happening are very high because it was said by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army (Valery Gerasimov).
He doesn't speak up often, but when he does, it's blunt and to the point. It gets through to them.

The only thing that can stop US actions is the threat of a Russian military response.

In simple English, the American / Israeli bully and liar, with his endless charades of ridiculous false flags and accompanying media hysteria,
has been told to back off by someone who is able to hit back in a way that is unacceptable to the bully.